1. The main driver of the Kazakh economy is oil & gas. The expected expansion of oil production and development of the transport infrastructure will make Kazakh oil more competitive. Increased oil revenues, in turn, will bring new banking opportunities into the oil sector, as well as other sectors benefiting from funds flowing into the oil sector. The banking intermediation ratios in Kazakhstan are low compared with those in the CEE. We expect these ratios to more than double in the next five years, and will focus on maintaining our leading position in the Kazakh market.
2. The main restructuring of the Kazakh banking sector is already completed. However, there may be some mergers and acquisitions among smaller banks, which might lead to the creation of the fourth large Kazakh bank. Nevertheless, the market shares of the three Kazakh banks that dominate the banking sector should not be affected. In the mid-term, international banks may acquire some Kazakh banks as in the CEE, thereby bringing more competition into the market.