Faced with a mass of regulatory reform and the ill-effects of the sovereign debt crisis, transaction banking is set for more change. And despite the emergence of new competitors, the competitive landscape is contracting thanks to global consolidation. The Banker speaks to some of the world's leading transaction bankers about their strategies for the coming year and beyond.
International listings are a huge part of the London Stock Exchange's business, but emerging market exchanges are becoming a genuine source of competition. However, the LSE's reputation and prestige look set to keep the bourse's global standing high in the short to medium term at the very least.
As regulators seek to push more business onto exchanges and into central clearing, and to make derivatives and other markets more transparent and more resilient, the reform of the securities industry is well under way. What will regulations mean for businesses in practice?
The combined and cumulative effects of new regulations and a hostile market environment means banks are fighting to build both capital and liquidity. Many questions remain about banks' ability to do both, and the effects of doing either on economic growth.
Few will deny that bank boards were as culpable as their senior management in failing to spot the dangerous levels of risk building within the banks in the lead-up to the financial crisis. There is clear recognition that things need to change. But changing risk structures, and more importantly, risk cultures, is easier said than done.
Recent events show that the desire to put in place a global recovery and resolution regime to prevent the kind of government intervention that was required during the financial crisis is very much a work in progress. For banks it requires a tremendous amount of work and unprecedented transparency about their operations. For national regulators, it means forging agreements that bring together disparate insolvency regimes.
The convergence of regulatory, government and economic forces on the financial sector is unprecedented. If much of the detail has yet to be determined and substantive differences between national authorities still exist, one thing that is certain is that the financial services industry will look very different in a few years' time.
There seems to be something of an inevitability about the renminbi's rise to reserve currency and global dominance. However, there are mutterings that this ascents will be curtailed by China's development model, corporate governance and financial system.
Despite the volatility in the global economy, the international value of the renminbi is increasing. But with China's slowing economy and the uncertainty surrounding how much further the country will go in liberalising its currency, how straightforward is the road ahead?
Morgan Stanley's joint venture in Japan with Mitsubishi UFJ Group has been criticised by competitors as a concession to MUFG for its huge investment in the US bank at the height of the financial crisis. However, Jonathan Kindred, CEO of MSMS, one of the companies formed by the joint venture, is adamant that the long-term benefits of the move will prove the critics wrong.
After spending well over a decade building out UBS's electronic trading business, Tim Wildenberg made the move to Citi in search of fresh challenges. He tells The Banker why he switched banks, and discusses the opportunities and priorities of his new role.
With its acquisition of Lehman Brothers' non-US operations, Nomura made an audacious bid to join the global investment banking elite. Little did it know that its bold move would coincide with the worst economic and financial environment for the best part of a century. However, its senior management believe that if they hold their nerve, the gamble can still reap the rewards they originally expected.
Global currency markets have become increasingly volatile as European policy-makers struggle to resolve the sovereign debt crisis and emerging economies try to limit currency rises at the same time as taming inflation. Traditional safe haven countries have been prompted to take historic action in a bid to stem currency appreciation and support exports. But are there any safe havens any more?
New regulations, specifically the push towards central counterparty clearing, are having a huge impact on banks' over-the-counter foreign exchange operations. As the banking sector undergoes significant changes, what will this mean for banks' organisational structures and the foreign exchange market?
Commodity currencies have posted record gains in the past two years, fuelled by spiralling demand for food and materials. But some of these countries are now struggling to offset runaway inflation, and the rate of inflows is such that central banks are becoming increasingly helpless to reverse the pressure on their currency.